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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 4

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.29 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP