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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 4-S.Hauschka 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.63 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model