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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model