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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 19 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to SF 24, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model