Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(8:19) 9-J.Ryan punts 64 yards to SF 9, Center-48-N.Frese. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 21 for 12 yards (86-B.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model