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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) (Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn up the middle to SEA 23 for 1 yard (93-T.McDaniel). Officials to measure for 1st down - Successful.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model