Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Hester to SEA 26 for 5 yards (38-A.Barnes). PENALTY on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model