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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 33

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:25) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model