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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 35

Detroit Lions 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP