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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to DET 23, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.15 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP