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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model