Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 83

Detroit Lions 6 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to SEA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-A.Barnes. PENALTY on SEA-27-N.Thorpe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.92 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model