4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 56

Detroit Lions 6 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model