Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to DET 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 24. 12-A.Roberts to DET 24 for no gain (27-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model