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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 47

New York Giants 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 9-B.Wing punts 32 yards to GB 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to GB 22 for 7 yards (82-R.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model