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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to NYG 7, Center-61-B.Goode. 17-D.Harris to NYG 8 for 1 yard (83-J.Janis, 28-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model