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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 92

New York Giants 6 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to NYG 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to NYG 38 for 7 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model