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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 7 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.49 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model