4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 10-J.Schum punts 37 yards to NYG 26, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-22-A.Ripkowski.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP