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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 41

New York Giants 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 9-B.Wing punts 31 yards to GB 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP