4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 21 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model