Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to GB 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to GB 36 for 15 yards (59-D.Kennard). Penalty on GB-25-M.Evans, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on GB-88-T.Montgomery, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model