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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model