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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model