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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 17-C.Conley to PIT 26 for 12 yards (50-R.Shazier).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model