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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to ATL 9, Center-61-B.Goode. 14-E.Weems to ATL 23 for 14 yards (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP