Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 24

(14:49) 10-J.Schum punts 50 yards to ATL 25, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model