Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 15 – Atlanta Falcons 44

(10:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to ATL 29 for 34 yards (30-D.Olatoye).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.69 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP