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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 44 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to GB 5, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP