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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP