4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:17) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.73 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model