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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.09 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model