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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to NE 12, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP