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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 83

New England Patriots 33 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 6-R.Allen punts 58 yards to PIT 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-A.Brown to PIT 35 for 10 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model