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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 8

New England Patriots 33 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 154 career postseason points, passing Gary Anderson for 3rd all-time.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model