Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 67

Chicago Bears 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(11:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 17 for 9 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.86 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model