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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model