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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 39

Chicago Bears 10 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 29 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-38-A.Amos. PENALTY on ATL-23-R.Alford, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP