4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model