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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 42

Chicago Bears 17 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short middle to 15-J.Bellamy to ATL 28 for 14 yards (21-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model