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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 5

Chicago Bears 17 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon sacked at ATL 14 for -9 yards (50-B.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model