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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 67

Chicago Bears 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 30 for 15 yards (52-C.Jones; 30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model