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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 36

Chicago Bears 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model