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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(3:14) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Doyle.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model