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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model