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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to LA 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-59-J.George at LA 24. 59-J.George to LA 24 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam). Penalty on LA-58-C.Littleton, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP