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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model