Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to IND 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-Q.Bray to IND 13 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam, 24-B.Countess). PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at IND 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model