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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to HOU 32, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP