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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model